Top 10 Tech Predictions for 2012

January 8, 2012 by
Filed under: Marketing, Strategy 

I woke up this morning thinking about what may happen in the world of tech this year based on all the articles I have read and how I think companies like Apple strategize.

10.  Media Companies will continue to suck while wasting more money on anti-piracy

These companies just will not learn.  Everyone and their mother realizes that it is far better to watch a show downloaded from bittorrent than on one of the lame network websites with the same commercials repeated at every break, yet these companies conspire to cripple legitimate sites.  Take Hulu.  When that site started it was great.  I loved going to hulu.com and watching old shows.  When they added commercials I did not mind.  It started to suck when the media companies decided that having all the content for ALL seasons of a show was not a good idea.  Hulu then introduced Hulu Plus and the site Jumped the Shark.  This site went from being the place I recommended to all my friends to one I have not visited in well over a year.

It is hard for these companies to realize that the gravy train is now over.  Instead of fighting legitamate options they should work with them.  I am sure a lot of people, myself included would rather watch the latest episode of Survivor on Netflix than on cbs.com, but that’s not an option.  Faced with cbs.com or bittorrent, many people will choose the better experience which is NOT on the network’s website.

There is a tiny ray of hope.  The service I am recommending these days is HBO Go.  This service is the one I recommend to all my friends.  I love being able to see Boardwalk Empire, the same night it is broadcast, on my iPad.  HBO has always been at the top of their game and I hope more companies follow suit, but I have little hope that this will happen in 2012.

9. Netflix will continue to decline

We all know that splitting the streaming and DVD plans was probably among the 10 top worst business decisions ever.  Netflix eroded brand loyalty, customer satisfaction, and share price all in one fell swoop.   When the announcement first came I thought it was either the most brilliant move ever, or the dumbest.  I gave them the benefit of a doubt and thought that maybe they had something up their sleeve that we were yet to find out.  All the subsequent moves, including the Quikster drama has led me to the realization that this is it.  Now Warner is going to force them to wait even longer for DVDs and Starz is still taking away their content.  Look for more drama when the Starz contract runs out in February and get ready to short NFLX.  So sad to see this given that they were the single best hope to bring some sense to the entertainment industry.  We all want to stream movies and we don’t want to pay outrageous prices.

8. Apple TV will continue to suck

Whether Apple continues to just sell the current Apple TV or a new iTV integrated television is irrelevant.  in the end it is about the content.  Having to pay for each episode of a TV show is not something people are clamoring for.  Maybe Steve had some great epiphany and Apple will surprise me, but I have little hope that the content war will be won this year.  A Siri integrated TV may sound great on paper, but if that TV can’t control your cable box and you have to get all your content from iTunes, there’s little chance that people like me will be satisfied.

There is one bit of hope I am holding out for.  What if the whole Netflix debacle WAS indeed a brilliant plan.  See Apple doesn’t need or want DVD distribution, they just need streaming.  Now that Netflix is so weak Apple can take all the money in their bank and make the perfect move against the media companies.  The checkmate move for Apple is to purchase Netflix, pay the movie studios a ton of cash to get rights to more content and release this iTV with Siri integration.  No one will use bittorrent if they can just ask their TV to play the latest Breaking Bad.

7. Corporations will begin to demand technologies not tied to Microsoft

As devices like iPhones and iPads and even Android devices start gaining more acceptance in the enterprise, companies will begin to see the error of choosing technologies like Microsoft SharePoint.  Decisions like wanting to have a full Microsoft stack will finally be seen as less attractive  and as these systems reach end of life companies will be sure to assess Webkit/open standards compatibility with any and all new enterprise apps.

6. Fragmentation of Android market will continue

There is no sign that manufacturers will streamline their product offerings and focus on building brands and a few good devices.  I don’t know a single lay person that can name an Android phone.  Everyone knows Android , but no one knows a single phone model or what the difference is between the models.  Most of these users are guided by store clerks, just like in the PC industry.  On the contrary these same people know iPhone 4, iPhone 4S and can at least tell you that 4s = Siri.

Manufacturers such as Samsung have built their business on hardware.  They could care less about the whole user experience.  They know how to churn out new devices at an astonishing rate and there are no signs of that slowing down.

5. Google Chrome will continue to gain marketshare at the expense of Firefox

Sadly Firefox has become today’s Internet Explorer.  Years of features and bloat has taken their venerable browser to the point where it can no longer be compiled in 32-bit Windows.  Many people still swear by FF and the competition from Chrome has led to the Mozilla team changing the way they version their browser and moving to automatic updates, but I’m afraid it’s a little late.  I believe Mozilla will use this opportunity to start over with a new browser, maybe one based on Webkit.  Only time will tell.

4. iOS will continue to surge in marketshare

Two factors will help iOS continue to grow thus fueling the whole ecosystem.

1) Phones:  As more Adreoid contracts come due, a lot of those users who were attracted to a “cheap” device will realize how much better their iPhone friends live life.  I have yet to meet anyone who owns an iPhone who is not satisfied.  The same can’t be said for people I know with Android phone.

2) Touch Pads:  iPad still has no true competition.  Apple is so far ahead this is not even a fair fight.  Most fortune 500 companies are looking to deploy or have deployed iPads.  I know of companies that have deployed iPads to their entire salesforce.  iPads are now on planes and boardrooms across america.  Corporate users are loving their iPhones and welcome devices that are instant-on and have great battery life.  Consumer love and enterprise acceptance means huge win for Apple and iOS in 2012.

3. Mac marketshare will continue to increase at the expense of PC manufacturers

Corporations are realizing that Apple devices can function well in the enterprise.  They are reaping the benefits of reduced support costs.  Many corporate apps these days are web based.  This fact alone allows companies to deploy Macs and have them work well for their users.  I know a Microsoft centric company that has allowed departments to get Macs as long as they did not have to support them.  Users have taken the opportunity to ditch ugly, slow HP laptops in favor of MacBook Airs and Mac Book Pros.

Companies are also looking at products that will allow users to use remote windows desktops for those applications native to Windows while users get to benefit from fast 64-bit machines that are almost instant on with SSDs and hardly ever need rebooting unlike their Windows counterparts.

2. Adroid touch pads will continue to suck

While Android phones have been successful mainly because the OS is free to manufacturers (in my opinion).  I don’t believe we will see the same scenario in the touch pad arena.  While Android phone manufacturers were helped by mobile carriers’ need to offer phones where they could install their crapware, the same is not true of touch pads.  There is no overarching entity that can subsidize the development of these devices so that manufacturers can flood the market.  No subsidies and lock-ins  means that no one will by sub-par devices.  Amazon’s Fire has seen some early success, but this is due to the loss leader strategy they are following.  Companies like Samsung can’t sell a device below cost.  The only other companies that “could” offer a touch pad are Facebook and Google.  I don’t see Facebook doing it, and I don’t think Google would heavily subsidize a touchpad just to gain marketshare.

1. iPad 2 will be kept on the market at a lower price when iPad 3 is released

The Kindle Fire seems to be off to a good start primarily because of its price tag.  I think Apple will mirror the iPhone 4/iPhone 4S pricing by offering the older model at a $100 discount.  The iPad 2 will still be at a premium in terms of price, but iPad 2 is hands down a better device than the Kindle Fire.  This lower cost may be enough to fight the Fire while helping to keep other manufacturers at bay.

 

 

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One Comment on Top 10 Tech Predictions for 2012

  1. noel on Sun, 8th Jan 2012 3:55 am

    2. Nice to see the AFTER I wrote my prediction above

    http://9to5mac.com/2012/01/06/forrester-apple-increases-penetration-in-corporate-market-potentially-worth-19b-in-2012/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+9To5Mac-MacAllDay+%289+to+5+Mac+-+Apple+Intelligence%29

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